1.30.2007

Experimentation Gone Awry

Last week I suffered my first loss of the year in a live game. OH!!! BOOOHOOO!!!! I can hear you say, but it was pretty dramatic for me, and that is why I must make you all suffer almost as much as I did... did somebody say... bad beat story? Well, here it goes.... It's not so much a bad beat as it is simply the retelling of a tale that ends tragically (sure, right...).

I had a conversation with a poker playing friend of mine a couple of weeks ago regarding when one should show their hand. He suggested that perhaps frequently showing the bluff was good strategy, whereas I have always belonged to the more traditional camp -- only a well timed show is ever prudent. Regardless, he is a successful player and I am a mere skidmark on the jock of humanity, so I figured, what the heck, I'll try out his method (the experiment).

So, I am playing 1-2 NL hold'em and doing fairly well. I flopped a flush playing K,7 suited from late position, I have stolen a couple of pots at opportune times and shown rags... things are looking good, and I'm liking the new method. The internal giggle I feel everytime I show 10,3 offsuit is nice... arousing. So, with things running so well, and 5 callers ahead of me (I'm in the small blind) for $15, I come into a pot holding 7,4 suited spades. The big blind calls and I'm thinking "Perfect... 8 players... $120 in the middle... and NO ONE is playing THESE cards."

THE FLOP: 3h, 5s, 6s
I think that hit my hand a little...? Hmmmm....

Now, some people would slow play here, but with the way I've been manhandling the table and showing bluffs, I figure a middle-range, "I'm gonna take a shot at this pot on a rag board" type of bet is called for... I make it $55 to go. Everyone folds except the initial raiser, a young kid who seems out to get me. PERFECT! He has been raising on just about anything 6's and above, and I'm putting him on something like 10's or J's... oh, and he also has the big stack at the table... which I am planning to dig deep into in just a moment.

TURN: 8d
This gives me a longer straight, and unless Superboy is playing 9,7 (yes Menendez, THE NEWMAN) for a raise preflop and called for a gutter, which he obviously did not, I'm still Jamie GOLD, and about to teach this nit a lesson in loop-extraction.

I bet out again... $85....

And what in all its glory do my little eyes see?
A RAISE TO $400, the actions on me!
I call it at once, well $385 anyway,
This makes me so happy, I'm feeling so gay!
Oh, and the river, I can hardly wait!
It's another 6, and the fucker was playing 8-8.

Yes, he made a fullhouse on me... runner runner. Pocket 8's crack my straight with an openended straight flush draw. And then he says, and I quote, "I wouldn't even have called the flop bet if you hadn't been showing all those steals."

Moral of the story: My friend might be on to something. I got a guy to put $470 into a pot when I was holding the stones with a nice re-draw. Yeah, I lost, but I got exactly what I wanted by controlling the table and giving off a certian sort of image. Mission accomplished... $455 downtick... but more experimentation to come.



Max Shapiro: "They say Poker is a zero sum game. It must be , because every time I play my sum ends up zero."

1.16.2007

Reducing the shock of Pot Limit Omaha....

The following is an article I just began working on for an online poker site. It doesn't pay too much, but it's extra money and I enjoy doing it... so, if you have any suggestions, ideas, comments... please share.

I appologize ahead of time if the formatting doesn't come through very well. I probably will not take the time to arrange it properly, so just trust that I am more than capable of putting this into a readable format. Thanks.

No Phil


Softening the Shock of Pot-Limit Omaha

During the past year and a half or so, I have grown increasingly fond of Pot-Limit Omaha. For those of you who stick entirely to hold’em, the game is played with four down cards, instead of two. Five community cards are spread, as in hold’em, composed of a “flop” of three cards, a “turn’, and a “river”. Where the two games diverge is that of your four hole cards, you MUST play two – making the best five card hand out of two cards from your hand and 3 from the board. For instance, if one holds:

A♥ Ad, A♠ 7♠,

and the board comes:

flop: A♣, 4♠, 9♠; turn: 2♥; river: J♠,

the best five card hand is the nut, ace-high flush (A♠, J♠, 9♠, 7♠, 4♠), not four aces, as only the A♠ and 7♠ from the hand play.

Basic gaming lessons aside, Pot-Limit Omaha is quickly becoming a very popular form of poker. It is often characterized by its wild nature, big pots, and the “any four cards can win” attitude of many of its less sophisticated (often online) players. Further, as a game that is just now coming into the limelight, it is a fantastic place to find a lot of beginners and donkeys willing to pay your monthly utility bills. The downside to the game, one quickly learns, is that the swings are more frequent and larger when they come. Being a four card game and of a pot-limit structure (often allowing several draws to see the turn), one’s ups and downs are regularly much more dramatic and frequent than in hold’em – creating a larger variance for even the best players. However, for those with a sizable bankroll, or the discipline to grind it out at the micro limits online, Pot-Limit Omaha can be a very challenging and profitable game.

That said, be prepared. The nature of the game is such that it often draws a lot of loose maniacs, and the beats one sees while playing regularly can often be described as nothing less than SICK. As an example, I have recovered an old hand history from a hand I played online, at a major site. It is my intent to take a look at the hand and analyze, at each step, the play of the players involved. My hope is that perhaps after reading this article, new players will enter the world of Pot-Limit Omaha with a better attitude, understanding, and respect for the inherently frustrating nature of the game. After all, in a game with four hole cards, dealt to 9-10 players, 80% of the deck is dealt out, and almost any draw that can hit… WILL.

While strolling through my personal archive of hand histories, my museum of bad beats and improbable suck-outs, or as a pot-limit player I know might say, my shrine to the “diseased minds” of those horseshoe-crammed-way-up-their-ass lunatics who draw at horrific odds and catch in the most improbable of ways, I ran across the following hand.

The game was 5/10 Pot-Limit Omaha and we were playing short – five handed at a table made for nine.
Seat 1/SB: $1,000
Seat 5/BB: $5,721
Seat 6: $830 (SITTING OUT)
Seat 7: $2,115
Seat 8: $940
Seat 9/Dealer: $580
Seat 7 calls 10
Seat 8 raises to 45
Dealer re-raises to 160
SB calls 155 (total 160)
BB calls 150 (total 160)
Seat 7 calls 150 (total 160)
Seat 8 re-raises to 275
Dealer re-raises to 580 and is all-in
SB calls 420 (total 580)
BB call 420 (total 580)
Seat 7 calls 420 (total 580)
Seat 8 re-raises to 940 and is all-in
SB calls 360 (total 940)
BB calls 360 (total 940)
Seat 7 calls 360 (total 940)
Main pot: $2900 Side pot 1: $1440 Total Pot before the flop: $4,340

FLOP: Q♥ 10♥ Jd

At this point, one should recognize the potential of such a flop. Not only is there a possible straight on board, but also a possible flush. Whereas in hold’em one might bet out a set of Q’s or 10’s here, it is not at all an advisable play in Omaha. With 5-way pre-flop action, it is very likely that someone has flopped a straight or a double draw (with a hand such as: K♥, 4♥, 10♠, 2♣), in which case, even a set of Q’s is no longer the statistical favorite to win the hand, as the probability of a double draw connecting is higher than the probability of a set holding up. Continuing the action:

SB checks
BB bets 4,781 and is all-in

(The player sitting out in seat 6 comments “stupid” and leaves the game – perhaps the most reasonable play thus far….)

Seat 7 folds
SB calls 60 and is all-in
Uncalled bet of 4,721 is returned to BB.

Main pot: $2900 Side pot 1: $1440 Side pot 2: $120 Total: $4460

At this point the hands were revealed, as all players involved in the hand were all-in:

SB shows: (Qd, 8♣,2♣, 7♠)
BB shows: (3♣, 9d, Kd, 3♥)
Seat 8 shows: (J♠, A♣, 4d, 8d)
Dealer shows: (A♥, Q♠, J♥, A♠)

Turn: 7♥ Full Board: Q♥ 10♥ Jd 7♥ (making the possible flush good)

River: 7♣ Full Board: Q♥ 10♥ Jd 7♥ 7♣ (possible quads, full house, flush, straight)

BB Shows a straight K-9
SB Shows a full house, 7’s full of queens (Wins side pot 2 ($120))
Seat 8 Shows 2 pair, Jacks and 7’s
SB Wins side pot 1 ($1,440)
Dealer Shows a flush, A-high
SB Wins main pot ($2,900)
Seat 8 stands up
Dealer stands up

Having all of the information of the hand now available, it is my intent to analyze the action of this hand, explaining as well as I can the possible thought processes of the players involved each step of the way.
First, let us examine the pre-flop play. Clearly, this hand was horribly overplayed pre-flop by almost everyone involved.

Seat 7 calls 10
Seat 8 raises to 45

Seat 8’s initial raise to $45 is fairly difficult to discern – at the very least, it is difficult to understand the rationale behind it. It may have perhaps been intended as a steal bet, or a pot builder, as some players like to build pots pre-flop, intending to make a large steal bet on the flop. Such a play is occasionally made in order to allow for a large first bet on the flop. For instance, were Seat 8 to have raised to $45 and been rewarded with 4 calls instead of a re-raise, he would have potentially been able to bet $225 on the flop – a sizable bet and a good amount to steal with, provided a favorable or un-opposing flop came out. Of course, this is only a guess as to why this raise was made. For those of you learning, such a play is not advisable when holding an unconnected and essentially unsuited hand (J♠, A♣, 4d, 8d). Omaha is generally not a game of steals, as there are so many possible combinations of hands dealt. If you are a beginner, I would strongly recommend removing the bluff from your repertoire for a while, until you have gained some valuable experience.

Dealer re-raises to 160

This was a strong re-raise and a smart play. The dealer’s hand (A♥, Q♠, J♥, A♠) was the favorite pre-flop and as such a raise is advisable here. The dealer’s intentions were obviously to slim down the field, preferably to heads-up – increasing the odds that his hand would prevail.

SB calls 155 (total 160)
BB calls 150 (total 160)
Seat 7 calls 150 (total 160)

These first two calls are very poor. The SB’s hand (Qd, 8♣, 2♣, 7♠) has very little potential to win, being connected only with the 8 and 7 and suited only 8-high. Simply completing to call the BB in this situation would not have been advisable, let alone calling $155. The BB’s hand is stronger, but certainly not worthy of a $150 call. While his K and 9 are suited and loosely connect, the board would have to be perfect in order for either to pay off, and a flop such as 10, J, Q would be very susceptible to the AK. Further, although the BB has a pair of 3’s, and roughly a 1-in-8 chance of flopping a set, doing so will oftentimes put him in a very awkward position. Even if a flop such as 3♣, 6♥, 10♥ were to have come out, his hand is vulnerable to the possible straight draw (4, 5), the possible flush draw, or a higher set.
Seat 7’s hand was never shown.

Seat 8 re-raises to 275

This is the worst play of the hand. Not only is this raise sure to be called, but it is done with a very poor hand. Were Seat 8’s intentions to steal the pot at this point, betting the maximum amount $960 is his only reasonable play. Further, he has reopened the betting for the Dealer, who had already re-raised him once.

Dealer raises to 580 and is all-in

This is the only play the Dealer could make. It is a continuation of his first raise and an opportunity I am sure he was glad to have – to re-raise with the intent of reducing the field to heads-up. His hand (A♥, Q♠, J♥, A♠) plays much better heads-up than in a multi-way pot.
SB calls 420
BB calls 420
Seat 7 calls 420

Again, the play of the SB is atrocious. He should have read the situation, realized that the dealer had a very strong hand, and mucked his hand at this point. His thought process (if he actually had one in mind) was likely that if he called the $420, the BB and Seat 7 would follow suit, laying humungous pot odds. It worked. The BB, I assume, called for the already $1885 in the pot, hoping to get lucky on the flop.

Seat 8 raises to 940 and is all-in
SB calls 360
BB calls 360
Seat 7 calls 360

I can give no rationale for Seat 8’s re-raise of $360 here. My inclination is that perhaps he was frustrated at this point by his very poor and weakly executed steal attempts and simply decided to push all-in and pray. The SB, BB, and Seat 7 were all too pot invested by this point to fold.

Running the four hands through a hand simulator reveals the following:
Pre-flop percentages
SB (Qd,8♣, 2♣, 7♠) wins: 23.56% ties: 1.33%
BB (3♣, 9d, Kd, 3♥) wins: 24.41% ties: 0%
Seat 8 (J♠, A♣, 4d, 8d) wins: 10.31% ties: 2.49%
Dealer (A♥, Q♠, J♥, A♠) wins: 39.05% ties: 8.14%

As you can see, the Dealer at this point is roughly 40% to win the hand and nearly 50% to at least tie. His raises, therefore, were justifiable, particularly if he was attempting to force a heads-up situation with Seat 8, who only had an overall 10% chance of winning the hand, and would have been a 70%-30% dog in a heads-up situation with the Dealer.

FLOP: Q♥ 10♥ Jd
SB checks
BB bets 4,781 an is all-in
Seat 7 folds
SB calls 60 and is all-in

The BB flopped a straight and decided to risk running into AK or a double draw, and therefore went all-in. Seat 7 was unwilling to call off his last $1175 and folded. The SB, having only $60 remaining, was correct to call with literally any hand, given the size of the pot.

At this point, the simulator reveals the following:
Post-flop percentages
SB wins: 1.33% ties: 0%
BB wins: 38.07% ties: 0%
Seat 8 wins: 0.57% ties: 8.14%
Dealer wins: 51.89% ties: 8.14%

TURN: 7♥

Percentages at the turn
SB wins: 6.25%
BB wins: 0%
Seat 8 wins: 0%
Dealer wins: 93.75%

RIVER: 7 ♣

Although this is certainly not a typical hand, it illustrates well the unpredictable nature of Pot-Limit Omaha. There was a straight flopped, a flush turned, and a full house eventually took it down on the river. The SB, who was only 1.33% likely to win on the flop, took some huge chances, and as a result, ended up scooping a monster. The Dealer, by contrast, played the hand very well and ended up losing his entire stack. All in all, it’s pretty clear that Pot-Limit Omaha is not a game for the faint of heart. Patience, proper play, and a bankroll large enough to endure large swings will result in sizable earnings in the long run, but even perfect play can result in some ugly swings and upsetting sessions in the short-go. Best of luck, and make those donkeys pay!

Nice hand, but you're still no Phil Ivey....

Essentially, this first post is a test run, just to see how things look in the settings I have chosen and to decide if I like the blogspot format enough to expand on this later. If I decide to do so, I will eventually begin laying not only my poker journal, but my life, somewhat, out there for the world to see. The following is copy and pasted from my page on poketfives.com. If you want to check it out, my profile name there is, big surprise: No Phil Ivey. I'm posting this "random fact" to alleviate any future ponders concerning the peculiarity of the name I have chosen for my blog. Enjoy.

Random fact: In case you were wondering about my name, No Phil Ivey, there is a story. About 2 years ago (closer to 4 now), I was playing 1-2 NL on fulltilt.com with Phil Ivey in the game (he's on there sometimes... easy to find... it's called, "Phil Ivey's Table"). Anyway, he was actually playing (usually isn't), and he and I were tearing up the game. Eventually though, we got into a hand together... and long story short, I played my hand a little tricky, and at the river, took his stack with trip K's, 10 kicker (he had K,8). At the end of the hand I said, "I got lucky"... to which he replied (the only words he typed in the hour and a half he played) "No, you played it perfect." Which pretty much put me on cloud 9... lol... I'll admit it, I felt good about myself. Another player soon chimed in, however, "Nice hand, but you're still no Phil Ivey" and I loved it... so it stuck. That's the story of my name... I'll never change it.